Sept./Oct. 2017 Public Forum: North and South Korea and Anti-Missile System

2017 September/October Topic Area: Korean Peninsula  •  Resolved: Deployment of anti-missile systems is in South Korea’s best interest.

Doug Bandow in The National Interest provides an overview of recent developments with U.S./South Korea relations. Both the U.S. and S.K. have relatively new Presidents very different from previous leadership.

In "The North Korea Crisis Is Coming to a Boil. It's Time for Fresh Thinking," (June 29, 2017), Bandow notes past intervention in Libya likely leads North Korea's leadership to be skeptical of claims the U.S. is not interested in regime change:

...North Korean behavior is important in assessing allied policy, but the Kim dynasty reasonably fears the threat of regime change. And Libyan dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi’s experience—violent ouster, public torture and street execution after negotiating away his missile and nuclear programs—is sufficient to dissuade most anyone from trusting the Trump administration’s assurances that it is not interested in regime change.

So North Korea's government continues to develop nuclear strike capability as a deterrent to U.S.-backed efforts to overthrow the Kim dictatorship.

Many online article look at why China continued to oppose THAAD, the U.S. missile defense system deployed in South Korea and then generally focus on the THAAD's very high-tech radar capability. "Why U.S. Antimissile System in South Korea Worries China," New York Times, March 11, 2017 explains:

Deploying Thaad’s current radar system “would undermine China’s nuclear deterrence by collecting important data on Chinese nuclear warheads,” Li Bin, a nuclear weapons expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing, wrote last week.

Bandow argues that times have changed dramatically since the Korean War. U.S. military presence and military bases were established when South Korea was weaker economically and militarily than North Korea. But open economic policies for South Korea along with foreign investment kick-started rapid economic growth over the last fifty-plus years.

Now South Korea's economy dwarfs North Korea. "North Korea vs. South Korean Economies," (Investopedia, April 5, 2015) compares the two economies and provides some history:

The economy of South Korea is multiple times (36.7 times as per current figures) that of North Korea’s in terms of GDP. According to 2013 figures, the GDP of North Korea is estimated at $33 billion, while that of South Korea is $1.19 trillion. The GDP per capita is $33,200 in South Korea, while it is $1,800 in the North, according to the CIA World Factbook. South Korea’s trade volume was a gigantic $1.07 trillion in 2013. By comparison, North Korea reported a relatively minuscule $7.3 billion.

With its enormous economic advantage and deep economic ties with China where South Korean corporation have huge investments, sell billions of dollars worth of goods each year, and operate factories that employ millions of Chinese workers directly or through subcontractors. (See "South Korean Stores Feel China’s Wrath as U.S. Missile System Is Deployed," New York Times, March 9, 2017). See also: "RPT-Korea Inc's China troubles rattle local workers, suppliers," Reuters, April 11, 2017)

S.Korean firms directly employ 700,000 Chinese -trade agency... 

South Korean businesses are a major employer in China, with firms such as Hyundai Motor Co, smartphone manufacturer Samsung Electronics Co, and retail giant Lotte Group directly creating some 700,000 jobs in China, according to a Korea trade promotion agency, and there are many more down the supply chain.

Hyundai, which says its Chinese affiliates and suppliers alone create a total of 90,000 jobs, has responded to falling sales by cutting production.

These economic connection are important. Though the Chinese government can stir up the public with anti-U.S. and anti-South Korea statements, such disruptions of trade and investment hurt Chinese workers and consumers as much as they hurt South Korean companies.

Doug Bandow argues the U.S. can rely on South Korea and China to continue peaceful relations once U.S. involvement is reduced:

Washington could phase out its troop presence and security commitment. After more than six decades, it is time for the South to take over responsibility for its defense. South Korea has forty times the GDP and double the population of the North—it should have left America’s defense dole long ago.

Bandow writes again on this issue in "It’s Time for America to Cut South Korea Loose: The first step to solving the North Korean problem is removing U.S. troops from the middle of it." (Foreign Policy, April 13, 2017).

"The Next North Korea Debate," (Foreign Policy, September 15, 2016) looks at history of failed efforts to find a diplomatic solutions to North Korea's nuclear development.

Economists focus on the the many ways trade, travel, and investment both enable people to create prosperity and also develop relationships between companies and everyday people across borders. Any policy that supports the current leadership and status quo in North Korea condemns millions to continue their unfree and impoverished lives.

It is hard or impossible for young people here to comprehend life in North Korea. In the TED presentation "My Escape from North Korea," Hyeonseo Lee tells her story.

Another refugee from North Korea, Yeonmi Park tells story of growing up in North Korea, and her story escaping to China:

Yeonmi Park: In Order to Live: A North Korean Girl's Journey to Freedom (YouTube, April 3, 2017) "What we see about North Korea is about politics and not about people."

The role of informal markets that allow North Koreans to trade with themselves and help stay alive.
Yeonmi Park - 박연미 - North Korea's Black Market Generation

Go To Where The Light Is: Escaping North Korea — Yeonmi Park  (LearnLiberty.org storytelling animated video)

(Also, fyi, the North Korean government actively tries to undermine the stories of defectors and refugees, especially those whose stories reach wider audiences.)

K-12 Policy Reform August News

• "The newest advantage of being rich in America? Higher grades
Escalating grade inflation at wealthy high schools is another blow to poor kids" (Hechinger Report, August 16, 2017)

Those enrolled in private and suburban public high schools are being awarded higher grades — critical in the competition for college admission — than their urban public school counterparts with no less talent or potential, new research shows.

• "How Free Eyeglasses Are Boosting Test Scores in Baltimore," Politico, August 17, 2017)

Could the persistent gap in reading performance between poor students and wealthier ones be closed if they gave the poor students eyeglasses?

• "Exclusive: How Safe Is My Child at School? New Interactive Maps Allow NYC & LA Parents to Compare Classrooms," (The74, June 7, 2017)

A recent poll of first-generation college students found that 1 in 4 did not feel safe in high school...What if there were a safe alternative across town, or even half a block away? Would families even know that?

• "Should Literacy Instruction Be a Constitutional Right?" (Education Week, August 15, 2017)

U.S. Constitution doesn't say anything explicit about education, leaving it up to states... That's why most litigation over school adequacy has been fought at the state level, rather than at the federal level.

 • "Before You Study, Ask for Help: That’s one of several ways students can better prepare themselves for tests in the new school year," (Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2017)

Students who excel at both classroom and standardized tests such as the SAT and ACT aren’t necessarily those who study longest. Instead, they study smart—planning ahead, quizzing themselves on the material and actively seeking out help when they don’t understand it.

• "Seeing Hope for Flagging Economy, West Virginia Revamps Vocational Track," (New York Times, August 10, 2017

Simulated workplaces, overseen by teachers newly trained in important state industries like health, coal and even fracking, are now operating in schools across the state.

• "19 Is the New 60: Adults should stop stealing away the time kids need to play." (Wall Street Journal, August 10, 2017)

In elementary school, a quarter of the boys and half the girls weren’t getting even a single hour of “moderate-to-vigorous activity” each day.

• "The Concentration of Poverty in American Schools," (The Atlantic, February 19, 2016)

This systemic economic and racial isolation looms as a huge obstacle for efforts to make a quality education available to all American students.

 • "In one state, students are ditching classrooms for jobs," (The Hechinger Report, August 6, 2017)

Work-based learning programs are slowly gaining traction in Vermont and other states as schools consider ways to better prepare students for college and careers. 

• "Demonizing School Choice Won't Help Education," (Bloomberg, August 1, 2017

We would like every kid in America to have the same kind of options we did to exit those failing institutions. And while we hate segregation, it’s hard for us to see how vouchers could make educational segregation worse today, given how extreme it already is in most major cities.

• "Some Schools Are Abolishing Homework In Favor Of Reading, And That's A Good Thing," (Big Think, August 5, 2017)

...research that shows that homework does not improve achievement for younger students, but time free from school type activities is important for their development.

 • "Anaheim’s ‘trigger’ win shines light on dysfunctional system," (Orange County Register, August 5, 2017)

Anaheim Elementary School Board trustees voted in late July to allow parents to convert the ill-performing Palm Lane Elementary School into a charter school. School officials have spent more than $800,000 in taxpayer money and two years battling mostly low-income parents over their effort to become the first Orange County school to use the so-called “parent trigger” law.

Federal K-12 Policy Reform In The News - July

• Soho Forum Debate on School Choice (Podcast) (Video) (July 11, 2017)

"Parents should have the choice to opt out of public schools and redirect the taxpayer tuition money for their children to other approved schools or educational options."
Bob Bowdon of ChoiceMedia.TV vs. Samuel Abrams of Columbia University

• A's on the rise in U.S. report cards, but SAT scores founder  (USA Today, July 17, 2017)

The good news on America's report cards: More high school teachers are handing out A's. But the bad news is that students aren't necessarily learning more.
Recent findings show that the proportion of high school seniors graduating with an A average — that includes an A-minus or A-plus — has grown sharply over the past generation, even as average SAT scores have fallen.

• Why school choice should be about possibility — not partisanship (PBS Newshour, July 14, 2017)

Journalist Gayle Tzemach Lemmon’s mother — a union Democrat who worked at the phone company during the day and sold Tupperware at night — lied about her address so Lemmon could attend a better elementary school. Lemmon talks about her own experience with school choice and why she now sees it not as an "issue,” but as a matter of life and death.

• Teachers With Student Debt: The Struggle, The Causes And What Comes Next, (nprED, July 16, 2017)

Public school teachers traditionally have had undergraduate degrees in education. But over the past decade, K-12 teachers have had a growing economic incentive to earn master's degrees. In some cases, they're actually required to do so.

• EdBuild is a nonprofit organization focused on bringing common sense and fairness to the way states fund public schools. 

School district secessions are inefficient and entrench community inequities—but they continue to happen in states across the country. What is driving this behavior and what can states do to curtail...

• Why Students Hate School Lunches, (New York Times, September 26, 2015)

Food and nutrition directors at school districts nationwide say that their trash cans are overflowing while their cash register receipts are diminishing as children either toss out the healthier meals or opt to brown-bag it.

 • Healthier School Lunch Rules Are Working, Study Finds, (Time, January 4, 2016)

Now a new study published Monday in the journal JAMA Pediatrics reveals that school lunches have indeed gotten healthier, and close to the same number of students are still participating in the school lunch program.

• School Inc. Episode 1: The Price of Excellence  Andrew Coulson

The documentary flashes forward to East Los Angeles, and a modern story of what happened when Jaime Escalante, a gifted math teacher at Garfield High, and the educational excellence he created in the classroom became the basis of the Hollywood movie, Stand and Deliver.  Finally, Coulson travels to Seoul, South Korea, where college-bound students eagerly enroll in after school tutoring programs called “Hagwons.” Students and administrators tell us how well it works, and one professor declares he makes more than a million dollars in salary every year.

• Student-Centered Learning: Building Agency and Engagement (edutopia: Schools That Work)

Peek inside a high school where teachers act as facilitators and students are directors of their own learning. 

• This New MIT Master's Program Doesn't Require A College Or High School Degree, (Ed Edify, July 11, 2017)

Students take five online courses for free. They pay only to take the final exam for each class, from $100 to $1,000 depending on their income. Once they've completed the online courses, students can apply to the on-campus master's program. Students are admitted based on their performance in the online courses. If accepted, students would spend about six months on campus: a spring semester and a summer semester. They would be required to complete a capstone project involving a field experiment with randomized evaluation, which could be with their current employer. They would also write a master's thesis.

Notes and Posts on Effective Debating

Here are recent posts on good debating from the Ethos Debate website.

• How to Improve Fluency and Clarity in Speaking, (Ethos Debate, May 30, 2017)
... I’ve developed a list of 5 ways you can improve your speaking. This post will focus on both impromptu skills and general ways to improve your eloquence and rhetoric. For those of you who are still debating... It’s a great time to work on your speaking, something that you will take with you far beyond the time you will spend debating in high school or college.

• Manners Maketh the Man (Ethos Debate, July 7, 2017)
Aristotle proposed that there are three components of effective persuasion: Ethos, Pathos, and Logos. Ethos is arguably the most essential, emphasizing the importance of persuasion through character. According to Aristotle, “We believe fair minded people to a greater extent and more quickly than we do others.” There are, in turn, three elements that make up Ethos: good sense, good character, and goodwill. Many debaters get hung up on the first one—they want to appear credible and confident—but they shortchange the character part. According to Aristotle’s idea of ‘good character’ (arete), you need to cultivate virtues in yourself that will then be manifested in your interactions with other people. 

• Start with Why (Ethos Debate, June 16, 2017)
You may be wondering why it’s so important to establish true positions on seemingly trivial arguments. And yes, these arguments might not matter after you end your last debate round in high school or college. However, for current debaters, learning the foundational truths behind these arguments make you a more logical and therefore more persuasive debater. 

• Why You Should Debate in the NSDA [addressed to homeschool debaters] (Ethos Debate, June 9, 2017)
As a four-year competitor in the NSDA, I’d like to inform you about the league, highlight what I feel are its high and low points, and encourage those who’d like to compete in another league that doing so will greatly benefit their public speaking and prepare them for the “real-world.”

• Hearts Over Minds #2: The Fairness Debate, (Ethos Debate, May 6, 2017)
In my last post, we covered that in order to be effective communicators, not only must we cater to the audience’s mind, but to the audience’s heart. Let’s apply this to a specific example: fairness. In short, not only must you win the flow, you must win on “fairness.”

Draft (suggested) MCPP page update

MCPP Debate Resources

China Policy (current policy topic)

Posts:
• China’s Migrant Workers: Exploitation or Escape from Rural Poverty?
• China Forest Planning: Success or Failure?
• Poverty to Prosperity through Education and Entrepreneurship
• China Infrastructure Spending Heads Down Silk Road

Article links:
• 5 Things to Know… About China’s Floating Population (Paulson Institute)
• China's influence in Australia is not ordinary soft power (Australia Financial Review)
• Chinese Wages Are Showing Paul Krugman Is Right Once Again (Forbes)
• U.S. Presses China to Free Activists Scrutinizing Ivanka Trump Shoe Factory (New York Times)
• Raj Chetty on Teachers, Social Mobility, and How to Find Answers to Big Questions (Medium)

Federal Education (new policy topic)

Posts:

• Poverty to Prosperity through Education and Entrepreneurship
For NSDA debaters transitioning from the China topic to federal K-12 funding and regulatory reform, consider the connection between child labor, education, and income inequality.

Article links: 

• When Memorization Gets in the Way of Learning (The Atlantic)
• What’s On The Menu For School Lunch Reform Under Trump (KPBS)
• Spying on Students: School-Issued Devices and Student Privacy (EFF)
• When School Feels Like Prison (The Atlantic)
• The Silicon Valley Billionaires Remaking America’s Schools (New York Times)


Public Forum Topic Posts

(currently on MCPP Publi

April:
2017 April Public Forum Topic Area: Election Reform
Resolved: The United States ought to replace the Electoral College with a direct national popular vote.
Campaign Changes Without Electoral CollegeKeep the Electoral College!March:
China to Palestine: Let Charter Cities & Economic Freedom BloomEntrepreneurs vs. OligarchyNeeded: More Startups, not States

{— NEW TO ADD TO PAGE —}

April:

“Resolved: The United States ought to replace the Electoral College with a direct national popular vote.”

• Without Electoral College, Campaigns Would Shift

Nationals:

Resolved: In East Africa, the United States federal government should prioritize its counterterrorism efforts over its humanitarian assistance.

• Humanitarian or Security Priorities for U.S. East Africa Policy?

Humanitarian or Security Priorities for U.S. East Africa Policy?

How can the U.S. government deal with security and humanitarian challenges in East African countries? The NSDA’s Public Forum resolution on SpeechandDebate.org:

Public Forum Debate – 2017 Nationals PF Topic Area: Africa
Resolved: In East Africa, the United States federal government should prioritize its counterterrorism efforts over its humanitarian assistance.

The National Interest in “Kenya’s Counterterrorism Approach is Floundering,” (August 4, 2016), reports the U.S. government is spending significant amounts on counterterrorism in East Africa:

Kenya is one of the largest recipients of U.S. security assistance in sub-Saharan Africa. Through both State and Defense Department accounts, the Kenyan government has received over $141 million in security assistance funds since 2010­—an amount that rose to $100 million in 2015 alone. Most of this financing is directed towards counterterrorism support,…

NCPA’s David Grantham, in “The Military, Nation-Building and Counterterrorism in Africa,” (Issue Briefs, National Security, April 18, 2016) is critical of complex and expanding U.S. operations in Africa:

This expensive, Department of State-led program, which is now integrated into the military’s U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), boasts lackluster oversight and a penchant for nation-building –‒ using multiple agencies to rebuild a given country’s political, economic and social infrastructure. In fact, its shape and language resembles failed, Cold War anticommunism programs in Latin America that ended up complicating rather than solving American security problems. (Full Issue Brief pdf here.)

This Issue Brief reviews the long history of U.S. government spending in Africa:

Under the Alliance for Progress, the U.S. government provided billions of dollars in economic aid, military equipment and civil assistance over the course of 10 years in the hope the funds would grow democratic institutions and undermine the appeal of communism. …

Despite past failures, prevailing wisdom once again says U.S. national security policies must target the ideology behind the threat in developing nations through taxpayer-funded development and modernization programs.

Interesting Africa Facts lists a lot of countries as East African. Wikipedia, however, lists some different countries: “Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan.” South Sudan isn’t on the list from Interesting Africa Facts, nor on the list from Africa Ranking. Africa Ranking lists and gives brief overviews with maps and key facts on the geography and economies of “The 9 East African Countries.”

A connection to the current China policy topic is reported in “China’s Geostrategic Search for Oil,” (pdf) (The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2012, p. 84), with Sudan as a source for 15 percent of China’s oil imports:

Figures for 2010 reveal that 23 percent of China’s offshore equity oil production was in Kazakhstan, 15 percent in both Sudan and Venezuela, 14 percent in Angola, five percent in Syria, …

HuffPost story, “Why China Is So Invested In South Sudan’s Future,” (WorldPost, June 23, 2016) reports:

Nowhere else in Africa do China’s financial, diplomatic and geopolitical interests confront as much risk as they do in South Sudan. Beijing has invested billions of dollars in the country’s oil sector, deployed about 1,000 troops to serve as U.N. peacekeepers and committed considerable diplomatic capital to help resolve the ongoing civil/ethnic war.

Sudan Tribune reports “China controls 75% of oil investment in Sudan: minister,” (August 3, 2016). Note that this article is about China investment in Sudan, which is separate from earlier investment in South Sudan oil fields:

Sudan lost 75% of its oil reserves after the southern part of the country became an independent nation in July 2011, denying the north billions of dollars in revenues. Oil revenue constituted more than half of the Sudan’s revenue and 90% of its exports.

Not all online sources list Sudan and South Sudan as part of East Africa, but this CNBC article: “South Sudan joins East African Community club,” supports South Sudan’s inclusion:

The young, troubled country of South Sudan was admitted to the East African Community (EAC) as its sixth member (the others being Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda).

Being admitted to the regional body means that South Sudan will enjoy all the economic benefits the club currently has to offer (freer movement of labour and capital and, in principle, free trade) and will join the members as they move to increase economic integration (through a monetary union) and eventually establish a single political federation.

South Sudan applied for membership to the EAC as soon as it gained independence in 2011. However, its application was declined because of the country’s institutional weakness.

East African Economic and Rule of Law Issues

This U.S. Chamber of Commerce publication, “Building the Future: A Look at the Economic Potential of East Africa,” survey’s economic expansion in recent years. From beginning of Executive Summary:

East Africa has been the fastest-growing region on the continent over the past decade, but trade between the United States and the region’s main economies remains limited. In 2014, Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Burundi all had higher growth rates than the United States. Despite this growth, U.S. trade with the region has been marginal and represents only 5% of total East African trade. East Africa’s main trading partners are China, India, and the European Union (EU). 

Regional integration has played a key role in boosting intra-East African trade and increasing the region’s access to global markets. The East African Community (EAC), a regional economic community that was originally founded in 1967 and revived in 2000, is the leading regional organization on the continent. Since 2000, the EAC has gradually reduced tariffs, trade barriers, and bottlenecks in the region, helping members increase their trade performance.

Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto, in a short video “Markets Without Borders,” argues that the legal exclusion of most Africans from formal rule of law institutions restricts their options for engaging in world markets. DeSoto argues that one-third of the world’s population lacks access to the rule of law, and elites of the world tend not to be bothered by that. The video looks at the informals of Tanzania as well as Peru.

DeSoto argues, at 1:30 (one minute, thirty seconds) into the Markets Without Borders that without access to legal institutions, the poor in Africa and other countries are “left out as orphans” and “will end up bringing civilization down:”

Globalization is a civilisation in the making. Civilization has always been designed by elites. And the tendency of elites has always been to feel that if it just covers themselves and maybe the top ten to twenty percent, it’s alright.

If globalization doesn’t create the space required for those who are excluded to come in. Does not give them the instruments, the tools with which  to prosper, they will be left out as orphans. And these orphans will end up bringing civilization down.

“The President’s Last Trip to Africa: Focus on Promoting Economic Freedom and the Rule of Law,” pdf (Heritage Issue Brief, July 24, 2015). This BBC News story, “How severe is the terror threat in East Africa?” also reports at the time of President Obama’s last trip to Africa”:

Long a territorially focused group with quasi-governmental ambitions to impose Sharia law at home, al-Shabab is now becoming a more mobile, networked regional presence.

This has brought it a number of benefits. Al-Shabab’s growing reach along the African coast is providing valuable new sources of funding and recruits.

This is a logical adaptation: enhanced global counter-terror finance efforts have strangled funding from the Somali diaspora, amongst other international sources.

In terms of recruitment, as foreign fighters have been drawn to Syria, the group has been overshadowed on the global stage.

Yet al-Shabab has stepped up its Swahili-language propaganda – which plays on deep-seated social, economic and political grievances in East African states.

“U.S. Attacks Reveal Al-Shabab’s Strength, Not Weakness,” (Foreign Policy, March 9, 2016) reports:

At a time when the United States has grown increasingly alarmed at the spread of Islamic extremism in Africa — from Boko Haram in Nigeria to al Qaeda in the Sahel region to the Islamic State in Libya — the resilience of al-Shabab has highlighted the limits of the Obama administration’s approach to counterterrorism on the continent. American drone strikes, coupled with financial and material assistance to a 22,000-strong African Union peace enforcement mission (AMISOM), have succeeded in driving al-Shabab from most urban areas. But those policies have not prevented the group from continuing to strike civilian, government, and AU targets as it seeks to expel AMISOM and establish an Islamic state in Somalia.

So these reports look at terrorism concerns in East Africa. What about recent humanitarian concerns? “East Africa Summit to Focus on Refugees, Food Concerns,” (Voice of America, March 21, 2017) reports:

Kenya plans to shut the Dadaab refugee camp by the end of May. Dadaab is home to more than 300,000 refugees, most of them Somalis. Tens of thousands have already returned to Somalia.

Humanitarian agencies are currently struggling to save lives in Somalia, where more than 6 million people need assistance because of drought and insurgent attacks. The aid agencies warn if nothing is done, the crisis in Somalia may become worse than the 2011 famine.

The United Nations estimates more than 17 million people need humanitarian assistance in East Africa.

Last May, CNN also reported: “Kenya to close refugee camps, displacing more than 600,000,” (May 6, 2016). East African refugee camps represent and economic burden as well as terrorism and humanitarian challenges:

“Kenya, having taken into consideration its national security interests, has decided that hosting of refugees has come to an end,” Kibicho said, pointing to threats, such as the terror group Al-Shabaab.

Kenya announced the closure of refugee camps last year for the same reasons but backed down in the face of international pressure

At the time, government officials were not clear where they expected the refugees to go, other than somewhere into Somalia and out of Kenya. Kibicho’s statement didn’t address the question of where the refugees would go.

An alternative approach to refugees is found in another East African country, Uganda, as explained in: “Refugee economies – the Ugandan model,” (IREN, June 30, 2014):

Uganda has a relatively liberal policy towards its 387,000 refugees and asylum-seekers, most of whom have fled conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Sudan. Uganda does not have refugee camps as such, but most live in designated refugee settlements where there are allocated plots of land to farm. They can, however, get permission to live outside these settlements if they think they can support themselves, and Kampala in particular has a sizeable refugee population.

Betts told IRIN: “Uganda is a relatively positive case in that it allows the right to work and a significant degree of freedom of movement. That isn’t to say that it’s perfect, but it’s definitely towards the positive end of the spectrum. The reason we chose it is that it shows what’s possible when refugees are given basic economic freedoms.”

The Uganda model is discussed in this post: “Refugee Economics: Success of Self-Reliance Refugee Policy,” (Economic Thinking, July 21, 2014):

The Oxford study, titled Refugee Economies: Rethinking Popular Assumptions begins:

Recent displacement from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, South Sudan, and Somalia has increased the number of refugees in the world to 15.4 million. Significantly, some 10.2 million of these people are in protracted refugee situations. In other words, they have been in limbo for at least 5 years, with an average length of stay in exile of nearly 20 years. Rather than transitioning from emergency relief to long-term reintegration, displaced populations too often get trapped within the system.

Uganda’s “Self-Reliance” policy for refugees offers a promising model for other countries struggling with incoming refugees:

‘Self-reliance’ policy allows refugees freedom of movement, as well as the right to work or run a business. The economic lives of refugees in Uganda, how they interact with the private sector and how they use technology challenged five myths about refugees. 

Here is page with short outline and link to video discussing misunderstandings of Refugee Economics.  The full Refugee Economics study is online here (pdf).

Video from YouTube is here:

Without Electoral College, Campaigns Would Shift

2017 Apr Public Forum Topic Area: Election ReformResolved: The United States ought to replace the Electoral College with a direct national popular vote.

For the April Public Forum topic students can research the history, politics, and incentives created by the Electoral College system. The U.S. was founded as a republic and the Electoral College helped small states maintain influence. Without an Electoral College, few Presidential candidates would bother making multiple trips to Iowa and New Hampshire each election cycle.

But maybe that would be a good thing. Should Iowa farmers and New Hampshire coffee shops have such an outsized role in each Presidential election? Consider the tens of millions of Republicans in California and Democrats in Texas who had no voice or impact in the recent election.

Presidential candidates and their campaign managers knew California and Texas mattered only for raising campaign funds, so focused their time and money on swing states instead. In what sense do Texas and California voters give their consent to Presidential elections if their votes won’t matter in the winner-take-all Electoral College system?

Supporters of the Electoral College could advocate reform so state electors could be split to reflect the popular vote. “Faithful Electors: If Every State Split Electoral College Votes, No One Would Be President-Elect,” (Medium, Nov. 11, 2016) discusses the challenges of a system of “faithful” electors voting as their state’s citizens vote. Looking at the November votes

Based on an analysis of the latest tallies as of the morning of November 10th, a state-by-state popular vote split of Electoral College votes would result in a lot of redistribution of votes. As a result, no candidate would have the required majority of Electoral College votes needed to become the next president. … 

This is a big part of the reason why anything beyond two party system is guaranteed to fail in the Electoral College system. More candidates would earn Electoral votes, but none of them would meet the threshold to become president. We would need to switch to instant-runoff voting (or similar) in order for candidates to achieve a majority of support.

A problem with judging the direct election of the President alternate, or a split Electoral College system, by the last election is that if the rules were different the campaigns would have been different.

The Presidential campaign teams focused their money, time, and ground game on winning key states to win the Electoral College. They didn’t focus on the popular vote, so spent less time with campaign stops and rallies in Texas, California and New York. Nearly 67 million people live in California and Texas, or nearly 1/5 of total US population. With New York/New Jersey population of 29 million added, nearly 100 million live in these four states, approaching 1/3 of US population.

“Here’s How Campaigns Would Work If We Abolished the Electoral College,” (Time, November 17, 2016), discusses how direct election would shift the system:

But strategists who have worked on presidential campaigns say that would change the way elections run dramatically, possibly exacerbating some of the complaints Americans have about their current system.
They say that under a national popular vote, they would push their candidates to spend more time in TV interviews; hold more rallies in big cities like New York, Houston and Los Angeles; raise vastly more money for nationwide advertising, direct mail and voter outreach; and focus more on their party base than swing voters.

With direct popular vote Presidential campaigns would like focus their efforts in big population centers in New York/New Jersey, California, Texas, Florida, and other big states. But that’s where the people are. The U.S. Census report lists ten largest US cities.

The Pew Research Center post “Trump’s victory another example of how Electoral College wins are bigger than popular vote ones,” (December 20, 2016), notes:

…Donald Trump won 304 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 227… That result was despite the fact that Clinton received nearly 2.9 million more popular votes than Trump in November’s election,…
This mismatch between the electoral and popular votes came about because Trump won several large states (such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) by very narrow margins, gaining all their electoral votes in the process, even as Clinton claimed other large states (such as California, Illinois and New York) by much wider margins. Trump’s share of the popular vote, in fact, was the seventh-smallest winning percentage since 1828, when presidential campaigns began to resemble those of today.

An additional rationale for the Electoral College was to check populist enthusiasm that the Founders feld majorities were susceptible to.

“The Electoral College Was Meant to Stop Men Like Trump From Being President,” (The Atlantic, November 21, 2016) explains:

Most of the men who founded the United States feared unfettered majority rule. James Madison wrote in Federalist 10 that systems of government based upon “pure democracy … have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property.” John Adams wrote in 1814 that, “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself.”

It’s easy to forget (or never learn) the more important role the states had before the Progressive Era, World Wars, and New Deal:

The Constitution says nothing about the people as a whole electing the president. It says in Article II that “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors.” Those electors then vote for president and vice-president. They can be selected “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.” Which is to say, any way the state legislature wants. In 14 states in the early 19th century, state legislatures chose their electors directly. The people did not vote at all.

Many online posts and articles can be found defending the Electoral College system as well as advocating replacing it with direct popular elections. However, Public Choice economists tend to focus on a different problem, one of rational voter ignorance.

Jason Brennan in “Trump Won Because Voters Are Ignorant, Literally,” (Foreign Policy, November 10, 2016) outlines the role of incentives in keeping voters uninformed:

Trump owes his victory to the uninformed. But it’s not just Trump. Political scientists have been studying what voters know and how they think for well over 65 years. The results are frightening. Voters generally know who the president is but not much else. They don’t know which party controls Congress, what Congress has done recently, whether the economy is getting better or worse (or by how much).

Public choice economists note that people are more likely to research new cars or smartphone because their “votes” matter in the quality and functions of the cars and smartphones they end up with.

Not so with politics. How all of us vote, collectively, matters a great deal. But how any one of us votes does not. Imagine a college professor told her class of 210 million students, “Three months from now, we’ll have a final exam. You won’t get your own personal grade. Instead, I’ll average all of your grades together, and everyone will receive the same grade.” No one would bother to study, and the average grade would be an F.

The New Yorker reviews Jason Brennan’s Against Democracy (November 7, 2016) begins:

Roughly a third of American voters think that the Marxist slogan “From each according to his ability to each according to his need” appears in the Constitution. About as many are incapable of naming even one of the three branches of the United States government. Fewer than a quarter know who their senators are, and only half are aware that their state has two of them.

Amazon link to Against Democracy (Princeton University Press, 2016), with free “Look Inside”.

Brennan, in this LearnLiberty.org video “How to Vote Well,” discusses problems like cognitive bias, that add to the challenge of rational voting with a system of direct election of President. YouTube video: